Rising wedge Formation
Upward Breakout
Appearance-An upward price spiral bounded by two intersecting, up-sloping trend lines
Reversal or continuation-Short-term bullish continuation
Downward Breakout
Appearance Same, but breakout is downward
Reversal or continuation Short-term bearish reversal
Surprising findings
Busted patterns perform well. Pullbacks hurt
performance. Tall patterns perform better
than short ones.
• Rising and falling wedges are among the most difficult formations to identify
Characteristic Discussion
• Two up-sloping trend Draw two trend lines, one along the minor highs and one
lines along the minor lows. The trend lines must both slope upward and eventually intersect
• Multiple touches Well-formed rising wedges have multiple touches of the two
• trend lines. Be skeptical of wedges having fewer than five touches (three on one side and two on the other).
• Three-week minimum A rising wedge has a minimum duration of 3 weeks.
• Anything less is a pennant. Formations rarely exceed 3 or 4 months long.
• Volume usually trends downward throughout the formation
• takes over 3 weeks for the formation to take on the wedge appearance
• Typically, the apex—where the two trend lines meet—marks the end of the formation.
Not trading a wedge until after the breakout is almost always a wise course of action.
• Rising wedges can form anywhere. You might expect them to form at the
end of a long uptrend and that is indeed the case most of the time. Occasionally,
prices are heading downward and a rising wedge forms as a sort of retrace
against the downward trend. After the breakout, prices resume falling.
• With poor measure rule performance and a small average rise or decline, it
should come as little surprise that rising wedges have higher failure rates than
other formations.
• Still, I consider these formations rare, especially in a bear market
• The best performance comes from wedges that follow the market trend—
• upward breakouts in a bull market and downward breakouts in a bear market
Standard & Poor’s 500 change: The index climbed or dropped the
most in step with wedges that climbed or dropped the most. This finding
shows that the best results occur when the breakout direction and market
direction are the same (bull market, up breakout and bear market, down breakout). Wedges with breakouts against the market trend have performance that suffers.
• For downward breakouts, the decline lasts an average of 38 days (about 5 weeks). The decline in a bear market is steeper than is the rise in a bull market
• Wedges in a bull market with upward breakouts have the lowest failure rates. That finding may sound odd because rising wedges are supposed to break out downward and, presumably, that is the direction of best performance. However, the 8% failure rate in a bull market is half that of a bear market (15%)
• Wedges showing pullbacks suffered worse performance. For example, in
a bear market, wedges with pullbacks declined 14%. Without pullbacks, the
decline measured 29%.
Gaps. Gaps on the day of the breakout helped performance as long as the
breakout was in the direction of the market trend (upward breakout in a bull
market or downward breakout in a bear market). Countertrend wedges were
either unchanged or showed better performance when no breakout day gap
appeared.
The gap size was larger after downward breakouts than after upward
ones, and this finding follows a trend I have seen with other patterns. Thus, if
you want to take advantage of a possible gap, you must enter the trade before
the breakout. Entering then will increase your risk, as you cannot accurately
predict the breakout direction. For reference, 44% of the time the breakout is
in the same direction as the trend leading to the wedge. That finding means if
price is rising into the wedge, chances are it will breakout downward. If price
is declining into the wedge, chances are it will breakout upward.
Even for short-term (long side) traders, I do not suggest they sell their
holdings if they see a rising wedge in a stock they own. Of course, if the fundamentals
suggest otherwise, then sell your holdings and look elsewhere for
another opportunity.
Chernobyl-An eye opener
#Chernobyl Episode 1 just caused me a minor faint watching the after effects of radiation exposure.I am astonished how the Japanese were up and running after Fukushima Daichi.The Soviet Union was a big white elephant in the room that needed to break up.A vast swathe of land run by an ideology that was exploited to the core.Just like the that Core exploded in Chernobyl,USSR was bound to be dismantled thanks to its decadent bureaucracy and tyranny.Leaders in USSR were ignorant and adamant to take advice was already well documented but that proved to be the last nail in the coffin when Gorbachev became the President.The after-effects of a Nuclear ☢️ radiation affected site is a tell-tale sign of Hell on Earth.The miners,Fireman and the “boys” had to go through the worst bodily harm that a person/thing would affect them.This is one haunting image of the Soviet Union. Just one massive cover up,one after another and another and it never stopped till it got dismembered and declassified but some stories are firmly shut and voices hushed permanently
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Thank you @clmazin for giving us an authentic take on #Chernobyl The innumerable lives lost,the unfathomable tragedy that unfolded,innocent victims who were just pawns to the gross negligence of a few have parallels to this day.Like George Santayana said “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.These are lines are so powerful for we live in a world in a quagmire of the same lies that cloud our thinking.This is as much the age of Disinformation as that of an Internet.
Mum’s the word
Mothers,what do I say about them ..doting,caring,loving,worrying,praying,cajoling,rejoicing(at our success),sorrow ridden(with our failures).They are the embodiment of God on Earth.My mother is a worry-freak,if that even is a phrase in vogue.She worries at the thought that I worry!She’ll pester you to eat a lot,pretty convinced that you have shed a lot of kilos.She is the quintessential Yoda for a young Paduwan.I always reiterate:Mothers are excellent with the finances.They curb our profligacy.And they are patient listeners,give you good counsel if you pay heed(the need of the hour for modern day teenagers)and also give a shoulder to ramble your worldly problems.Fathers in a way tend to avoid this.They feel,an individual should be battle hardened and learn as you go(a sweeping generalisation of course.Data would be tough to procure😋).My Amma,as I’d like to put it probably became what she is today because of her mother.They neither received great education or nor had the exposure to the Knowledge economy we are living in as of today and reaping the fruits of the Internet age solely due to their sacrifices.The stark reality is that they are confined to kitchens,their advices are either ignored or derided upon,their thoughts aren’t put to words thanks to the role they are relegated to and bear the brunt of the family wrath.Her patience is akin to subzero temperatures of ice in Vladivostok.Both of them rarely have a melt down.I would like to end my prose eloquent on my mom with the LOVE they shower upon us.Limitless.Ongoing.Virtuous.Empathetic
Few thoughts of Parvez Rasool’s National Anthem furore
Paying due respect to the National Anthem and National Flag are part of the Fundamental Duties that every citizen of India should adhere to.
It is indeed cavalier and disrespectful of Rasool but the matter shouldn’t be blown out of proportions.He might have been unmindful of his duties but he shouldn’t be subjected to such vitrolic diatribe and hate messages should STOP pouring in from the social media.(Facebook in general and Twitter in particular.Both these mediums of social interactions have become Happy Hunting grounds for Trolls,Intolerants and Irrationalists with so much hate being spewed by them.Please spare a penny for your thoughts on this)
One need not wear the love for his country on his sleeves and in his heart brew hatred for the same with diabolical thoughts.He can be a responsible citizen eventhough he doesnt follow the rulebook to be an ideal subject.There should be a clarion call to shun jingoism by effectively shutting out these social media Trolls.They have become like gangrene in this virtual world.
Day/Night Tests are here to stay
This was to be published a long ago but was stuck in my archives..
The Adelaide Test between Australia&NewZealand which staged the 1st ever day-night test was a huge sell out.In an era where everything is in fast track mode,test cricket has witnessed falling match attendance,dwindling viewership and passing references in media.Test cricket is what personifies the gentleman’s tag associated with cricket but the advent of T20 cricket which has become more palatable for the audiences for its quick results,thrills,swashbuckling pyrotechnics,pumped up commentary,gravity defying fielding,adrenaline-fueled ending.All these game embellishing attributes have ensured it’s almost curtains for test cricket in the modern era.Test cricket has its own fair share of fanatics who turn up at matches having a patient and keen eye for good cricket.I would gladly count myself as one among them.Although I’m not an attendee at the grounds watching the game as it should be but a couch potato watching ball by ball on Telly.Day/Night matches had been mooted a long time ago and it was inevitable that this Historic fixture was sooner to come if not later.Coming back after a brief aberration,yes,The Adelaide Test.We’ve witnessed 40,000 odd crowd turning up everyday of the 5 days of test cricket.As the wait for the game was raised to a feverish pitch so was the game itself.It was a close game and fittingly in the din and bustle of batsman’s blitzkrieg of modern day cricket surprisingly it was the bowlers who had the last laugh.Hazlewood and Trent Boult were the pick of the bowlers and the game itself had its result in just 3 days.Another major entry to the game was the Pink Ball which replaced the traditional Red Cherry.There were concerns voiced from pundits,players and the like regarding how the ball would behave under the lights.Yes,there was swing and movement under the lights but that’s part of the fun to watch in a revamped Test rules packaged delightfully.Especially the part where playing under the lights can be tricky and a batsman’s application of technique is called here into question.All in all these novel features injected into the game has inflamed the passion for test cricket with renewed vigor like never before.I seriously hope the International Cricket Council(ICC) advocate for more Test cricket under the lights with and pursue the cause earnestly among test playing nations.What a sight it would be to behold if a Day Night test is staged at Eden Gardens with 80,000 cheering fans with frenzy!
Stephen”Horror”King
Stephen King’s works on Horror are well known and are subjected to critical acclaim .Through his books as well as their Big Screen and Small screen adaptations.The horror,fear,clairvoyant powers to unsuspecting,confused characters are his niche.He is a master of horror,thrills,suspense unlike the slasher horror macabre ridden B-flicks his tales revolve around human psyche and the inner beast in a man during testing times and dire straits .Yes,his screen adaptations bombed at the box-office(yeah,a few of ’em).But one stand out movie that’s worth a life time of achievement is his classic “Rita Hayworth&Shawshank redemption and King has found an “apt pupil”(funnily,another King’s work which saw Bryan Singer make his debut)in Frank Darabont an auteur movie director himself who did a fantastic job even more in adapting it to the silver screen.The IMDB lists the movie in its top 100 and is recognized by critics and fans alike as one of the best movies to never have won an Academy.Green mile is another masterful piece of suspense drama helmed again by Darabont and the actors Michael Clarke Duncan and Tom Hanks have essayed the role to perfection.I fondly remember watching the Pet cemetery,as a kid and had to endure days and nights of unending nightmare and deja vū.One movie in particular that has caught my eye was The Mist..it ranks a top in my favorite horror list of all times and the ending was so good that Stephen King himself was in awe at the modified climax that he exclaimed that Darabont did a better job than him.We’ve seen some utterly incomprehensible silverscreen adaptations of King and some masterpieces.And as they say it’s a Himalayan mess trying to wade through Hollywood with book to screen works!Postscript:I’ve ignored other King’s brilliant works like Carrie etc.due to want of time.(got to go)
Moral and public censure
Moral crusaders advocating banning of pornography have to pay heed to the individual choices that will serve as a conduit of myriad factors that effect an individual if he does or doesn’t make up his mind in watching it.If he chooses the former,precedents will tell you that he’ll degenerate into an addict&possibly emerge as a harm to himself and to the society OR he might end or mend his ways to come out scathed albeit a better individual who’ll know the consequences if he is chained to the said vice.If he chooses the latter either his pent up physiological need might erupt in the near future(no pun intended ) OR he’s treading on a path of his choice not letting the emotions chain his actions.Yes,porn is a western import and we are disgusted at the thought of women being subjected to such bohemian ways of debauchery which will fill us with scorn but to mature and mould ourselves as better individuals who make rational choices its up to him/her to regulate his /her thoughts rather than being harangued by thought-police whose so called self professed value-laden(more to serve as an arm of his stubborn principles rather than for an altruistic purpose)fundamentals or the Government acting as a benevolent master trying to nudge the netizens to anchor their thoughts to the moorings of our culture and shun such “western imports” by arbitrary executive orders.Its the individual that should take center-stage of his Life and succumb to his choices or come out unscathed not a bunch of dubious moral police..
Ode on death of Dr.APJ ABDUL KALAM
A visionary scientist,an awe inspiring personality,a paragon of hard work and dedication,he has endeared to the youth and old alike by igniting the minds to think out of mediocrity and to pursue one’s pursuit of dreams earnestly.He was a thinking man’s president and a great Doyen of the scientific community.The Nation is bereft of a great soul,friend,philosopher,guide and a teacher.In the words of H.W.LongFellow”Lives of great men all remind us we can make our lives sublime and departing leave behind us,footprints on the sands of time 
Fed is here to stay..Tennis is his mainstay
My letter in Frontline Magazine..
The Passive Blogger 